Democrats are the weakest they’ve been in the era of Trump—at least, according to recent polls.
The so-called “generic ballot” surveys whether people are more likely to vote for Democrats or Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections.
While Democrats have held a large advantage throughout Trump’s presidency, that number has plummeted over recent months.
At one point, Democrats had an advantage of 13 percentage points—but, due to popular Republican policies like tax reform and successes both home and abroad from President Trump, that lead has dwindled to just 4.7 points in the RealClearPolitics average of “generic ballot” polls—the lowest since Inauguration Day 2017.
Democrats currently lead Republicans 45 percent to 40.3 percent.
Because Republicans are more geographically diverse, while Democrats are concentrated in coastal cities, Republicans will likely keep the House of Representatives even if Democrats have a narrow lead in the generic polling.
The good news for Republicans comes as Trump’s approval rating continues to climb—fueled by a strong economy and a number of foreign policy wins, on issues like Iran and North Korea.
Trump’s current approval rating stands at 43.3—nearly the highest its been in a year.