Democrats everywhere are still predicting a “blue wave” in November-but polls are telling a very different story.
As President Trump grows more popular—with an approval rating hovering at 50%, according to the latest string of Rasmussen polls—and Republican policies like tax reform also grow more popular, Democrats have seen their poll numbers crater.
The latest poll from ABC News and the Washington Post shows Democrats with a scant 4 point advantage, leading Republicans 47 to 43. A Rasmussen poll from last week shows Democrats leading by 5, and a Quinnipiac poll shows them leading by just 3.
Overall, the Democrats’ advantage has shrunk to 6.2%—one of their lowest polling advantages in nearly a year.
Because Republicans are more geographically diverse, because of gerrymandering, and because of the advantage incumbents have in congressional races, Democrats need to have a sizable polling advantage if they’re going to win back Congress—but, right now, it doesn’t look like they’re on their way to a “blue wave.”