Frankly, they didn’t need a study to tell them.
But hey, that’s the Germans for you. So tolerant and thorough they commissioned an official report to look into the question of whether disaffected young men from foreign countries with no support networks and few job prospects are behind a rise in crime that just so happens to correspond perfectly with the German government’s decision to bring more of them in.
This study used data sourced from the German province of Lower Saxony. More than 90% of the crime wave in that state was found to be attributable to migrants. Which, actually, is surprisingly higher than I imagined.
I would have expected a lot of extra crime would be down to migrants, sure. But one would think at least a fair portion of it would be due to inter-gang fighting from pre-existing criminal networks, trying to force the new guys out of their turf. But no, apparently the vast majority of new crime in Lower Saxony came from young foreign males.
You may be thinking “Well, that’s not surprising. Young guys are troublemakers everywhere in the world.” And you’d be right.
Single males aged 14-30 are the one group most likely to commit crime anywhere in the world, across all nations, races, and creeds. But while the group of migrants brought into Germany recently included lots of these 14-30 year old men, it’s not like young men make up all the migrants.
If they did, this 90% number wouldn’t be that surprising; young men are violent and lawless all over the world. Even more so when they’ve been exposed to profound traumas and don’t have a way to communicate with those around them.
But statistically speaking, the number of female refugees arriving in Europe is at least equal to, and according to most numbers probably slightly outweighs, the number of males.
What that indicates, then, is that the young men who are arriving in Germany as refugees are disproportionately criminal in comparison to the young men who are already in Germany. 90% of the new violent crimes in Germany have been carried out by these migrants.
Does that suggest that native-born 14-30 year olds are less likely to be engaged in violent crime than those who have fled to Germany from war-torn countries? I believe it does.
But there are a number of good explanations for why that may be. On the one hand, criminal networks in Germany are less likely to be caught, because they know their turf. Their operations are polished. They know that the cars with flashing lights and the words “polizei” on them mean it’s time to hoof it.
And, additionally, migrants are apparently more likely to be reported to police for alleged violent crimes than German nationals. Something like twice as likely, according to this government study. The Germany people are on edge; they are watching these refugees very carefully. Many Germans are uncomfortable with these people. Is it any wonder they’re watching more carefully for signs of crime? And anyway, the migrants stick out more than the natives, making it harder for them to get away with crimes.
So that’s probably at least part of it.
The study also says that migrants who are in Germany on a tenuous legal basis are more likely to commit crimes than those who are likely to receive asylum. Refugees from war zones, like Syria, are given precedence in the German system. These people aren’t typically willing to risk their (pretty high) chances of receiving asylum by doing something stupid.
But those who have simply taken the opportunity to leave their homes in hopes of living in a nicer, Western country, are given short shrift by the German government.
And lots of migrants have left places that, while shitty, are not nearly as bad as Syria. The “Syrian refugee crisis” has become a more general “Middle Eastern refugee crisis,” and many young men have left not because their homes and lives have been destroyed, but simply because they are looking for better opportunities.
While you can’t really fault them for wanting a better life, these young men don’t really have any legal standing for being in Germany, and most will be deported. So some apparently have taken the opportunity to make trouble in Germany while they have the chance.
The recent study of crime in Lower Saxony supported this theory. It showed that 17% of crimes attributed to migrant were likely committed by North Africans. These North Africans make up less than 1% of the migrant population in Lower Saxony, and for the most part they fit into that category of “people who won’t be allowed to stay once the dust settles.”
Given their disproportionate share of criminal behavior (1% of the dudes doing 17% of the crimes is pretty disproportionate), it seems fair to say these men are largely in Germany for the wrong reasons. Let’s hope the German government soon comes to its senses, and begins to solve that problem.